Housing Drama Update

Posted 01-09-07:

Last June I predicted a drop in Reno home prices of 30% from the peak of the housing bubble.

Here's the headline from the Reno Gazette of November 21st, 2006...

Housing prices fall 13%
By Zack Hall zhall@rgj.com The median price for an existing single-family home in the greater Reno-Sparks area dropped for the fifth consecutive month in October. The median price slipped to $312,400 in the Reno metro area, down 13 percent compared with October 2005, according to the University of Nevada, Reno Bureau of Business & Economic Research report released Monday. That is down from the all-time high of $370,000 in January this year and down slightly from $315,000.


We're almost halfway to my prediction and I think only just getting started. Maybe I was too conservative. OK, I'll keep my prediction for now but add...

The steepest declines in home prices will be in 2007...

But the bottom will be even later.

Here's a taste of what we'll see this coming year in the news...

Flippers in Trouble

And my favorite site for keeping track of the topic...

The Housing Bubble

Another great tool for watching the value of YOUR home is...

Zillow

Just type in your address...

How low do YOU think prices will go?

Comment below.



2013 Update:

Ø  This is actually a bit old now but he’s calling it like I see it. - Darren

http://business.time.com/2013/01/22/what-ever-happened-to-the-big-bad-shadow-inventory-of-homes/

Nice summary, and I agree with it as far as it goes.

The question now is, how are all these investors going to have time to drive around and enjoy their new homes?

The reality is, these “properties” have simply moved from one set of file cabinets to another.  Sure a few of the small local investors have rehabbed and flipped or rented, but the bulk remain empty.  So the question not asked (nor answered) by that post is, where do the butts come from that will sit in those approximately five million houses?  I’ve got one freshly painted and yet setting empty for the last year right next door – no sale, no tenant.

This “housing recovery” is simply the “ringing” caused by investors I’ve talked about before.  This too shall pass, and I fear in the process find a new bottom for the housing market sometime in the next 36 months.

You heard it here first.