I've been surprised by the number of requests to Reheat Stone Soup. I guess there IS need to express oneself in the solitude and privacy of a square mile the high desert sage!
Or else you guys just like to party!
Whatever the case, Stone Soup, the Reheat is ON!
By a clear majority, the camp-out is now set for Friday, July 31st, Saturday, August 1st and Sunday, August 2nd at PermaBurn, 60 miles north of Susanville. No need to RSVP. All you have to do is show up! We don't have time to get all the resources we had in June, so just bring what you have, and we'll do what we can. So far I've heard from the following camps. Stay tuned for updates...
Center Camp - Rose Palace Paula & Dave will be setting up a shade structure. Anyone have a table or two?
Camp Lazy Fucks - Returning from our mud bath, Blue and Brother as Camp Lazy Fucks will host the greeter camp at the very west end of the valley. I've heard Kathy is also returning to help them out again. Welcome to the greeters!
Reno Poly Camp - Actually, it's the Northern Nevada Polyamory Support group, and they will hold their August meeting at Stone Soup's Center Camp as well as hosting a Saturday evening pack-it-in, pack-it-out, lick-your-plate pot-luck at 6:00 PM. This will be preceded by, "An Introduction to Polyamory", at 4:00 PM. They will also lead discussions on alternate lifestyles during the weekend. Contact Teresa Werner with any question or contribution at... terwer42@yahoo.com
Help Me - "Help Me" BSDM camp will be back to give late night demonstrations. Prepare to be punished.
Finally, if you were at the event in June, you'll remember Marshall. He was the master of the fire, and kept it going in SPITE of the rain. Well, Sunday, August 2nd is his BIRTHDAY! If we convince him to return, we'll get a chance to thank him for all his effort by starting his birthday party at midnight on Saturday! So come and join the camp-out. It will be an excellent excuse to celebrate an excellent Burner! And get your vibe in tune for the playa!
What : Stone Soup Reheat 2009 Camp-out at PermaBurn
When : July 31st, Aug 1st & 2nd (early and late camping is fine)
Where : Madeline, California - 60 miles north of Susanville
Entrance Fee : 0.00, nada, FREE!
If you don't know what I'm talking about, click the "Stone Soup" label for this blog to read all the details and history.
Thanks to CyberBiker for providing this Google Map link..
Stone Soup 2009 - PermaBurn Location on Google Map
If you haven't been out, there is 5 miles of gravel road, some of it has dips that would challenge anything with a flat exit angle, such as a long over-hang RV. Last year there were trailers as long as 24 feet and one fully loaded Geo Metro, so any normal car will make it if you dodge a few rocks. High clearance or trucks, no problem at all. (05-1-20-09 much of the road has been graded since last year and virtually ANY vehicle can make it out by dodging a few rocks).
(click to expand)
How to get to PermaBurn...
Take 395 60 miles north of Susanville to Madeline, California
(the 395 junction is just east of Susanville).
Go 6 miles north of Madeline on 395 to the 134.92 mile marker at 41 7'43" 120 30'0".
Watch for the orange tape from this point on. If you go to Google map you won't find any names on any of these roads, but the mile marker is past Sage Hen and before South Fork Mountain Road. On the ground, the key is the mile marker and orange tape at each junction.
This is where the five miles of dirt road starts...
Take an immediate left at mile marker 134.92, onto the shortcut to a gravel road.
Take another left to go south on this gravel road.
Go 0.1 miles till you reach the green gate. Open the gate if you have to and go through. Please remember to close it back.
Go 0.4 miles until you see a second green Gate on the right with orange tape.
Open the green gate and take a right. AND close it back, please. Thar BE cattle.
Cross the yellow cattle guard about 30 feet beyond the gate.
Go 2.4 miles. (05-20-09 this section has been graded since last year).
You will see another yellow cattle guard and orange tape.
To the right, will be a sign for the reservoir.
You are at 41 6'45" 120 32' 6".
Go just BEYOND the cattle guard, and then take an immediate LEFT turn on the dirt road on the other side of the fence. Turn left just AFTER the cattle guard, not before!
Go 2.2 miles south and up the hill on this smaller dirt road.
At some points the road tilts pretty bad, and there are a few rocks protruding but a normal car can make it with care.
You will reach the top of the hill with three trees on the left, and then come down into the PermaBurn site. The last hundred yards (which was so bad last year) has been newly worked and is in much better condition.
The best camping is in this first valley.
Welcome to Permaburn!
Welcome to Stone Soup Reheated!
Monday, July 13, 2009
Stone Soup Reheated at PermaBurn!
Monday, July 06, 2009
Poly Shade Design
(First storm 2008 - Note the standing waves in the sequential sections. An awning might have limited damage, and did in later version.)
Much of this content was first posted August 22, 2008, just before I left for the playa. 2008 turned out to be the worst week for wind storms I've experienced in my seven years at Burning Man. It was even worse than 2007. I learned a lot in only a few days. This post was updated in 2009 and finally again in 2016.
It's not obvious, but stress is the key to this design in using poly-plastic to create shade AND have it survive up to 80 MPH gusts - or not as the case may be.
The first element of stress is because PVC pipe only becomes somewhat rigid when bent into an arc and held in a plane. Yet it also flexes and kneels when the wind blows. Second, the canvass itself forms a stressed skin structure holding the PVC ribs in their plane. These stresses compliment each other, yet yield to the wind instead of breaking.
Technically this design is an ultra-light, bi-stressed poly shade structure - Poly Shade for short. I believe it's the cheapest, lightest method to shade almost 3000 square feet. It goes up fast and comes down even faster.
Several people have asked how they could build one. Below are detailed construction plans.
Design History
As I discovered with the Zen Hammock, PVC is an interesting building material. It's cheap, light, strong, flexible and can be easily worked. That's why, next to duct-tape, it's the most popular building material on the playa during Burning Man.
I decided to use PVC and Tyvek to hold up a LARGE shade structure in 2005. I planned for 70 feet long by 38 foot arch base. The PVC worked fine. The Tyvek didn't. We only got half of it up shading only 35 by 38 feet for a total of 1330 square feet.
Also that first year, I kept each rib in a plane by rigging with ropes. This was too complex and the ropes wore holes in the Tyvek fabric when buffeted by the wind.
In 2006 I switched from Tyvek to poly-tarp and dropped the rib to rib ropes. Instead, I used the fabric itself attached with ball-bungees to hold the ribs in a plane. This simplification turned it into a stressed-skin structure which worked well. I also spread the base to 40 feet which dropped the top of the ribs just enough to reach from the motor-home.
In 2006 we used five ribs and four sections of twelve foot wide tarps. This gave us a foot print of 40 feet by 50 feet (including PVC width), for over 2304 square feet of shade.
In 2007 I expanded the length one more section giving us just over 60 feet by 40 feet and 2880 square feet of shade. I also replaced the side PVC with simple rope anchors, but poly-stressed was about to take on a whole new meaning.
2007 had the worst and most consistent winds with the largest gusts of any year I've been at Burning Man (until 2008!). Once we finally got it up (wind problems), the structure flexed and kneeled in the wind all week. Thursday and Friday brought a thunderstorm each day. By the end of the week, one t-post broke off right at the playa and another had pulled out of the ground. Many of the grommets had pulled out and tarp was flapping in the wind. The design had been out to the limits.
The biggest problem was, because of the wind, we didn't get a good initial rig and the ribs were out of plane. The structure kneeled right away pulling grommets out. Once weakened, it just got worse. More rigid ribs would also have helped.
In 2008 I plan to increase the internal links from 4 to 20 feet on the end ribs and 4 to 10 feet on the rest of the ribs. I also plan to extend it one more section to over 72 feet giving us 3456 square feet of shade and making it finally larger than my original design.
If you've read my Burning Man blog post for 2008, you know 2008 was worse than even 2007 for wind, and it wasn't short-term thunderstorms that caused the problems. It was sustained strong winds for hours on end. Sunday's storm was moderate, but still pulled apart the first and second ribs on the windward south end.
I had used the new design with longer links so I didn't think I needed centering tape. Looks like I was wrong. Ten or even twenty foot links can shift around with enough bouncing. And then they come apart at the weak point. We lashed things down as well as we could Monday morning just as the wind picked up again.
Monday's storm was far worse. It's 30 to 40 MPH winds went on for most of the day, all night and even into the next morning. They had to close the gate to Burning Man for six hours because of total white-out that evening.
(2008 Sunday / Monday Storm Damage)
By Tuesday morning there was little of the Poly Shade structure left standing. We took it all down except for three ribs which were still in fair condition. On Wednesday, we moved the few good tarps onto these empty rib sections. To help some of the camps in the sun, I also added an awning to the windward end. Not only did it provide extra shade, it seem to help keep the wind out of from under the structure, so it didn't jump as much when the next big storm hit on Saturday. Was this a clue?
My plan for 2009 is to return to the three rib design but on 16' centers as tarp weight does not seem to be a limit. The 20' links seem to just add more weight than rigidity. I will use 10' links and center-tape them as in earlier designs.
The biggest change will be awnings on both ends, plus four end ropes instead of three. This should hold the plane better. We'll see. Instead of joining the tarp sections with tie-wraps this year, I'll only join the corners. Then when on the playa, I'll thread a50' x 1/4" poly reef rope along each seam and tie it to the tarp corner at the anchor end. The other end will go over the center rib and allow for reefing of the awnings and to some degree the center sections as well.
I also plan to install the safety x-ropes from the top of EACH rib to the tire on a motor-home or other vehicle. This should cut down on the "galloping" as well as insure the whole thing doesn't blow down playa.
Another line of defense against strong predicted winds is to add the ability to "reef" much of the canvas. My idea is to thread poly rope along the seams of the tarps in an "accordion" fashion so I can release the base of the awning tarps and pull and bunch them to the center rib.
My plan is to reef the trailing edge first, then the leading edge. This should reduce canvas by 50%. If it's going to be a bad blow, I could also release the end ropes and pull the ribs into the center rib using the reefing ropes. This should cut tarp area by a total of 75%. I'll let you know how all this works out.
Materials 2009 Design
Each Description Cost Weight 8 5' steel t-posts 40 48 6 14" sections of 3/16" steel chain 12 6 Chain QuickLinks 12 9 20' x 2 1/2" S40 PVC for ribs 225 243 6 10' x 2" class 200 PVC for links 3 x 20' 45 36 6 4' x 1 1/2" class 200 PVC = 2 x 20' foundations 22 6 4' x 2" class 200 PVC = 2 x 20' foundations 34 16 12' x 16' Costco 10mm poly tarps 144 112 72 8" Tie-wraps 4 300 8" Ball-bungees 75 6 1/4" poly X-ropes (6 x 25' = 150') 20 6 1/4" poly side-ropes (6 x 10' = 60') 10 6 1/4" poly reef-ropes (6 x 50' = 300') 40 8 3/8" poly end ropes (8 x 50' = 200') 16 8 Tension straps 80 10 Safety lights 40 Total $819 439 pounds Site Tools 100' tape Fence post pounder Saw Hammer Fence post puller
Foundation Prep
Drill a 3/8th inch hole in the top of the flange of 6 five foot steel t-posts. Use a screw link to add 14 inches of 1 1/4 inch chain to each flange. This is where the side-anchor ropes will attach.
Cut 6 each of 1 1/2 inch class 200 PVC four feet long. Cut the same using 2 inch class 200 PVC. One each of these sleeves will fit over each steel t-post creating two internal layers to distribute the stress and keep the rib from splitting out at the bottom. These three elements make up the "foundation".
Rib Prep
Each rib is made up of three 20 foot 2.5 inch S40 grade PVC pipes. An internal 10' "link" of 2 inch class 200 is used to distribute the stress at each joint. For the first three years, this link was four feet long. In 2009 I'm using 10 foot links. This should make the ribs more rigid but still light-weight.
Cut the six inch flange off of three 20 foot class 200 2 inch PVC sections. Cut them in half of as (just under) 10' internal links for the center ribs. Wrap six layers of duct tape at the center of each link, staggered over a five inches of pipe to form ramped peak of tape in the very center.
Black mark the center as well as 4 inches in from the non-flared end of each S40 rib section.
Load for transport - I had room to put them inside my motor-home but I had to crawl over top of them so load them last. If you load them on a roof as I did one year, note their total weight and the effect it has on handling. I could feel it. Also make sure the load is secure.
Tarp Prep
Drag out the tarps and grade for similar size along the 16 foot sides. Try different combinations until the corner grommets line up, as size is inconsistent with these cheap tarps. Alternate colored sides if you want a checker-board pattern when you're done.
Fold up tarps and strap with tension straps.
Load for transport.
Playa Construction
Pick a site where the center-line of the end anchor ropes will point to Gerlach if at all possible. That is where the most common winds come from. The point is to have the wind go up and over the awning structure instead of hitting the side.
Plot a line 92', 9" long with the ends as the end rope anchor points. At 30' in, swing a 20' arc about 90 degrees to the long line. Next sweep a 36' arc from the closest anchor point. Set a corner post where the two arcs cross. Repeat for each corner.
The center rib post should be midway between these corner posts at 16' 1.5" on each side. This should yield a rectangle just over 32' x 40' as a footprint for the structure. Measuring corner to corner at 51.22' to make sure it's on the square.
Drive in all rib posts vertically 16" or until firm, keeping chain above ground.
Drive in end anchor post at 50 degrees from the ground so the rope vector will be less than 90 degrees to the post, and therefor pull it IN to the ground.
Place 4 foot 1 1/2" and 2" foundations sleeves on all rib posts.
Assemble all ribs with 10' links.
First wrap the center of each link with 5 wraps of duct-tape beveled off along the sides of the wraps.
Mark small end of rib at joint 3" from the end. Using a wooden block, hammer ribs together until they approach the 3" mark. Duct-tape the outside of the rib joint to hold them in place until they are under stress. They will get tighter once the wind starts blowing.
There are lots of good knots. At times I've used a clove hitch, but most of the times just plenty of half-hitches.
Tie end ropes to end ribs at 15' and 25' from each end of the rib.
Add two X-ropes at one third points along the ribs (see Storm Management below).
Setting the Ribs
Place all ribs to the outside of the foot-print next to their posts ready to move into place. Drive the motor-home into the center of the footprint.
Raise and drape the first rib across the top of the motor-home.
With one person on top of the motor-home to stabilize the rib, one guy at least six feet tall to hold high, one guy to guide the end over the post, and up to two others for muscle, place the rib over foundation post on one side, and then the other.
Setting ribs is a tricky process. Using ropes, I actually placed one of these by myself once, but it's VERY difficult alone. With the right crew, it's quick and easy work. The key is cooperation. It's like lifting a piano - not as heavy, but more awkward. The rib seems to move on it's own like a huge snake until it's seated. The key is to work together, and don't ever leave just one guy holding all the force. These ribs can kick like a mule. It's not as bad as I make it sound - it's just a different kind of physical experience.
Back up motor-home to next rib position.
Repeat for all ribs.
Add a tension strap to each end rope and attach it to the anchor post, but leave it slack until tarps are in place.
Setting the Tarp
Wait for calm. This is important. Flapping tarps are difficult to bungee and pull tight. In the wind, you'll end up with a poor alignment and a weaker structure. I've done it.
Layout a tarp section for one of the center positions. Thread a 50' x 1/4" poly reef rope through each of the three seams. Pull the motor-home forward and drag the tarp section on top.
Line up tarp center seam with rib center mark to place first bungee. Or you can offset tarp to get more shade (or wind load) on one side or the other. Make sure any offset is the same on both ribs to keep things square.
Bungee from the center down each side pulling tarp tight as you go. If you can, work both ribs of the tarp at the same time to make sure it stays square. When a center section is done, secure the center end of the reef rope and thread the anchor end through the cooresponding seams of the awning tarp section which should be on the top of the end ropes. Secure the reef rope at the anchor end of the awning. Pull awning up on the motor-home and bungee to the end rib keeping it tight as before.
Repeat for both ends.
Add string lights to ribs inside structure to suit your taste.
Final Rig
Release lower end-ropes and pull to the side to drive in and park vehicles. I drive over an old tarp to use as a floor. Replace end-ropes.
Secure the two x-ropes of each rib to the tires of vehicles. Tying around the bottom of car tires works well if the rope angle won't rub the paint or wear against metal.
Adjust tension straps on end ropes to take any slack out of structure, but be careful that END RIBS REMAIN IN A PLANE and vertical. If the end ribs get out of plane, they will kneel in lighter winds and do more damage to the grommets.
Rig side ropes from tarps to post anchor chains making sure all slack is out of tarps.
Put PVC over end anchor posts for safety.
Add safety lights to end ropes at eye level and anchor posts.
Total playa construction should have taken about six hours.
Have a good Burn! :)
Storm Management
Depending on wind direction and strength, there are things you can do to improve safety and mitigate damage. Orienting the structure so the wind goes THROUGH the structure instead of against the side is the most helpful thing - (WRONG 2008 advice. Instead, use awnings to get the wind to go UP and OVER structure so that standing waves and oscillations don't start. This was learned in 2008 and is the approach I'll use in 2009).
If winds go over 30 MPH, you are likely to get "kneeling" where the ribs will deform, leave plane, and pull into an "S" shape in three dimensions. You'll know it when you see it.
Unless, the ribs are banging on something below, this will do little or no damage. The rib will pop back up on its own when the wind dies down.
If the wind goes over 40 MPH or you have bad gusting, you may get "galloping" where the ribs and tarps move in waves down the structure. This will tend to stress the posts, foundations, ribs, joints, grommets and tarps. I've even tied ribs down into kneeling position during bad storms to cut galloping and stress. (Let's see how awnings help this problem).
With bad galloping, I've seen the ribs jumping up their posts and off the playa more than a foot in bad storms. This is usually because the side rope grommets have pulled out or other damage has been done. Once things start breaking down, it just gets worse.
In 2007 one post broke off at the playa and another pulled out completely from galloping. In both cases, I added X-ropes to keep the rib secure and somewhat in position.
One important safety point to note is, if a post breaks or pulls out of the playa, it will want to jump out and may hit anything in the way (car, tent or someone's head).
Keep the area around the rib posts clear for this reason. Usually the rib (and post) will only jump a couple of feet and then dig into the dirt again. The tarps and bungees tend to hold it in form. But it's better to be safe and NOT take a nap next to one of these ribs in a storm. A tent will NOT slow it's kick much.
Rib De-construction
Tear-down goes much faster than construction.
Release end ropes. After a week in the wind, the ribs will probably sag over to the sides.
Hang on ribs and pop bungees off.
Fold and strap tarps.
Place one guy on top of motor-home to stabilize ribs as before, while up to four others lift them off of foundations. One person should grab and hold the PVC foundation sleeves down as the rib comes up so you don't have to lift as high to get them off. Watch your fingers as it pops off.
Another VERY important safety point here is these ribs may kick like a mule once they clear the post. Make sure AT LEAST two people have a firm grip until they are laid down.
Repeat for all ribs.
De-constructing the ribs can be difficult depending on how much pounding the wind did during the week. Use the motor-home to pull them apart. Tie a rope to the back of the motor-home and to one end of a rib. Tie the other end of the rib to one of the end posts. A timber knot or several half-hitches will usually do it. Drive the motor-home ahead slowly and they will generally pop apart. This process will take a while but works well and is safe if you stand well clear of the joint as it pops apart. One rib would NOT come apart after the storms of 2008. We broke two ropes and a STRAP trying. We finally sawed it in two.
Secure load for transport.
If you have any questions, please email so I can also update this post with your feedback.
And let me know how it works out if you give it a try.
2010 Version
In 2010 I made smaller ribs by only using two 20' PVC sections with only on 10' link. this yielded only 25' wide base but also created a lower and more rigid structure which seem to stand up to the wind better. The tarp awnings on each end also helped keep the wind from doing so much damage. Well, once we got it in place.
As is common on the playa, the wind came up before we got all the tarps on. We had to stop work. And then it got worse. By the next morning we had rain and a fair amount of tarp damage. As soon as things dried out, we took the damaged tarps down and started over. This time we got it stable before the next storm blew in. Yep, it blew hard and rained again, but this time everything held up with no problems for the rest of the week.
This year (2011) I plan to use the same design except add on more rib for another 400 square feet of shade. I'll let you know how it goes.
Materials for the 2011 Design
Each Description Cost Weight 8 5' steel t-posts 40 486 14" sections of 3/16" steel chain 126 Chain QuickLinks 128 20' x 2 1/2" S40 PVC for ribs 200 216 6 10' x 2" class 200 PVC for links 3 x 20' 30 36 8 4' x 1 1/2" class 200 PVC = 2 x 20' foundations 29 8 4' x 2" class 200 PVC = 2 x 20' foundations 45 10 12' x 16' Costco 10mm poly tarps 100 70 48 8" Tie-wraps 5 96 8" Ball-bungees 30 6 1/4" poly X-ropes (6 x 25' = 150') 20 6 1/4" poly side-ropes (6 x 10' = 60') 14 6 1/2" poly end ropes (6 x 25' = 150') 18 6 Tension straps 60 10 Safety lights 40 Total $671 382 pounds2 5' steel t-posts (no chain) for end anchors 16 12
2011 Layout
Plot a line 88', 7.5" long with the ends as the end rope anchor points. At 20' in, swing a 12' 6" arc about 90 degrees to the long line. Next sweep a 23' 7" arc from the closest anchor point. Set a corner post where the two arcs cross. Repeat for each corner.
Repeat this process for four ribs at 16' 2.5" on each side and 12.5' from the center line. This should yield a rectangle of 48' 7.5" x 25' as a footprint for the structure. Measuring corner to corner at 54' 8" to make sure it's on the square.
2014 Layout
Another change we made this year was to "reef" the tarps during bad storms. If you simply push the bungees together on both ends of the tarp, it gathers in the center where you can wrap bungees around the bundle. It obviously provides no shelter in this configuration but will withstand very high winds with no damage. Then just redeploy the next morning when the wind dies down.
One final change we made was to use three tarps on the smaller 40' ribs with the top tarp overlapping the side tarps by two feet on each side. This worked very well when we got a half inch of rain in 2014. The water shed nicely.
Let me know if you use this design or have any questions.
Rod Coleman
Thursday, July 02, 2009
Case-Shiller 100-Year Chart
(click to expand to full size)
Many of you have heard me talk about this chart at different times, so here it is. It's one of the best pieces of data on the housing bubble I've seen anywhere. It shows what happened, and more importantly, where "normal" is likely to be.
For what it's worth.
Friday, June 26, 2009
The Girl Who Doesn't Age
The future is a wonderful place to live. We get to see things happening which were limited to science fiction when I was young.
Yes. The "baby" you see above is actually 16 years old, and actually DOES age but in an inconsistent way. So far, there are more questions than answers. But can you imagine? She may end being the Rosetta Stone medical science and aging. Or she may live to be a thousand years old.
Strange days...
Details from ABC...
Details from the New Scientist...
Sunday, June 07, 2009
Stone Soup at Permabog
Cindy's art project grew nicely in the rain...
OK. PermaBog is a bit overstated, but at the very least Stone Soup was watered down. And before you say it, yes, I'm guilty of being an optimist. I didn't think the rain we'd had all week would continue, let alone get worse. As we drove up, the closer we got to PermanBurn, the harder it rained. But then it almost stopped when we arrived. Was that a good sign? Who knows.
As we pulled up to the gate, cowboys were herding about a hundred head of cattle up the gravel road. We stopped and talked. A guy named Shane (I'm serious - he looked like someone out of a Marlboro commercial). Anyway, he said, "You'll need four wheel drive to get up that road", so we parked at the gate to assess the situation. Shane said we could camp down at the gate as long as we cleaned up before we left. Tim thought that was a good idea. But I wasn't ready to give up just yet. I had most of Club Verboten and Center Camp in my RV's hall-way. I wanted to deliver it.
An, Kathy and I hiked up the road to take a look at the conditions. It started to rain again. Going up that first grade, it didn't look that bad. After a couple of miles, I went back for my RV while An and Kathy continued on up to PermaBurn - a five mile walk in total. My walk that day was a bit longer.
My plan was to take my RV up to the second cattle guard then hike back and get Tim's RV up too. Rita decided to go with me. I had my foot to the floor and going about 20 MPH all the way up the hill. Rita was laughing and shrieking, as I looked for gravel patches to give me traction. My 30 foot motor-home was bouncing from one side of the road to the other. It's a good thing I didn't slow down. We were spinning and grinding just as we topped out on the flats. It was a "barely made it" kind of arrival.
I parked in a nice flat spot at the second cattle guard to check for damage. My tail pipe bracket had broken lose, but that was about it. Well there was a LOT of mud everywhere. But mud washes off. Next, I needed to do some more scouting.
Rita and I hiked two miles up the next grade to check it out before I tried to drive it. It didn't take me long to figure out the weekend wouldn't turn out the way we had planned. There was no way I could get up this next section, let alone the convoy of two-wheeled drive vehicles I knew were coming behind me.
We were soaked to the bone by the time we got to PermaBurn. Rick in his Greyhound were there. He had come up Wednesday when it was dry. Greg (the founder of PermaBurn) had set up camp but was taking a nap. Mark and Marge had set up the Stone Soup Saloon and were wrapped up in blankets to stay warm. Blue and Bro were greeting at Camp Lazy Fucks with something called "Apple Pie", made from ever-clear and other good stuff. Even served cold, it warmed us up.
But Rick's bus with it's heater running helped a lot more. Everyone collected there for a meeting. After reviewing conditions, Rick sent out the 4 WD email alert to the Reno list (Sprint has good signal at PermaBurn). Maybe the rain would stop. If it did, the sun this time of year would dry it out in a few hours. But I knew the sun had to break before 2:00 PM at the latest, or most would have to stop back at the highway. Some were coming from Portland, LA and SF. It was best to let as many as possible know about the road conditions before they drove all the way out here. We hoped the email alert would get to them in time.
After an hour's break, we got a ride back to my RV and had lunch. I was tired. We nodded off, then awoke to the sound of talking. Marshal had come up and built us a camp fire. Others stopped to warm up at the fire as we stood in the rain. We had maybe a dozen at this mid-camp for a while. Some turned around and headed back to base camp. Other with 4 WD went on up to PermaBurn. We waited for the fire to die out, which didn't take long in the increasing rain. Then we went back down to base camp ourselves. The ride down was even more slippery than the ride up. At the bottom I noticed a rock had torn off my outside water valve and the tank was emptying on the ground. Oh well, there was no shortage of water.
By the time we got back, Tim (Club Verboten) had gone home, but many others had arrived. At one point we probably had 30 people at base camp and as many as 20 up at PermaBurn. Thomas had tried to follow me up the hill in his 40 foot motor-home but got stuck only 100 yards in. Blue helped pull him out with his 4 WD. Thomas and Adela then camped at the gate base camp too.
The rain continued. Everything dripped. My feet were freezing. It was about 40 degrees, but you could already see your breath. More people arrived. Marshal started building another big fire for base camp. After comparing notes with everyone and guessing at the odds the rain would stop, I started relaxing and realized we'd just have to wait and see. I was tired. I got my wet clothes off and had some dinner then fell asleep before 10 PM.
During the night, lots of others arrived. Troy put up a shelter which helped a lot. Unfortunately, he had to leave most of his gear on a trailer about a half a mile back where he had tuned off at the wrong turn and gotten stuck in a bog.
Also in the night, one of the other PermaBurn owners tried the hill in an excellent 4 WD rig but got stuck the same place as Thomas's RV. He had to cut lose his 10,000 pound loaded trailer in order to go on up.
At sunrise the cowboys (and cowgirls) were back to move the herd on up the dirt road. Shane said it was the most rain they had seen in a long time - maybe ever for June. It had rained all night. And the rain continued for breakfast as well. Thanks to Sharon for the bacon and eggs, and a dry place to eat them.
My cousin Dave had a 4WD but only with road tires. He was with us at base camp, but we figured it was good enough to pull Troy's stuck trailer out. When we got there a BLM Ranger had stopped to check on it, and was now chewing up the road trying to get out of the same mud hole himself. Even with knarly tires and bad-assed 4 WD it took several tries.
Dave couldn't drive back into that mess, so instead we used 200 feet of rope to pull the trailer to better ground. I hung on the back of the trailer to get the tongue off the ground while Troy tried to steer and Dave drove the truck. Troy and I were soaked in mud, and we broke the rope twice, but we finally got the trailer to drier ground.
Back at base camp, the kids were playing in the mud, and the rain continued. There was no way things would dry out before Monday or Tuesday. After lunch, I wired up my tail pipe with a clothes hanger, and we packed up the RV and headed home about noon. That was the end of Stone Soup for us.
This is the worst Burner experience I've ever had, but even so, nobody freaked out. Nobody had a bad attitude. Marshal did and amazing job with the fire and campfire cheese sandwiches for lunch. The kids of course enjoyed the mud more than we did. Burners are wonderful people. And that fact becomes more apparent as the conditions get worse.
Sorry about the weather guys. I guess that's how it is with adventure.
Just before we left, Greg and others came off the hill to say hi and suggested we do a Stone Soup Reheat at some point. PermaBurn really IS a beautiful piece of ground. And with a dry road like last year, it's an easy drive.
Maybe when my feet get warm.
The Man ready to be burned...
Dave, expressing himself...
And Paula taking a dare...
Cindy and her art...
Monday, May 11, 2009
This Is Not Another Great Depression
Many of you have heard me make this same statement many times in our economics summits and otherwise during the last few months. That's because I'd heard some of this from my grandparents, and also read about the causes and depth of the economic contraction in the 1930s.
This guy does a far better job than my casual rhetoric and occasional statistic. It's very much worth a read considering our current situation...
This Is Not Another Great Depression Part 1
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Stone Soup 2009 Camp-out at PermaBurn
What : Stone Soup 2009 Camp-out at PermaBurn
When : June 5th, 6th & 7th (early and late camping is fine)
Where : Madeline, California - 60 miles north of Susanville
Entrance Fee : 0.00, nada, FREE!
RSVP your camp, art plans and head count to... - don't bother to RSVP now - just join us!
sudden.net@gmail.com
Soup's On!
Great news in a down year - the second UNofficial Reno Regional Burn and camp-out is now official! (We're not officially part of Burning Man, but Stone Soup 2009 is now officially in production!)
Considering our Burned out economy, some may not even make it to the playa this year. Others have asked for a spring camp-out for Burners. So we're headed back to PermaBurn! And to keep it totally FREE, we're using the Stone Soup approach.
Come on, you remember the Grimm Brother tale about three Napoleonic soldiers returning to a war-torn and starving village in hopes of a free meal. As the villagers are at first unwilling to share any of their meager food stores with these strangers, they decide to get creative. The soldiers set up a pot and begin to boil a large stone announcing a dinner of "stone soup" will be ready soon.
Then someone offers to add some salt - just to give it a little flavor. Next pepper is offered up. Soon other villagers begin bring forth their modest vegitables and other contributions to create a wonderful soup. In no time, they all eat very well in spite of first intentions. The point is, you won't need to bring much to PermaBurn, just what you need to survive and what you wish to add to the experience.
For those who didn't join us last year, PermaBurn is 640 acres of northern California being organized as permanent art installations by a Burner named Greg Glover from the east coast. In the spirit of Burning Man, Greg has gifted this volcanic caldera for the weekend with virtually no restrictions on how we wish to express ourselves.
We'll use the PermaBurn site as our soup pot. Greg's also thrown in port-a-potties as the stone for the soup. Am I pushing this metaphor too far? In any case, because of his wonderful gift, we don't need to charge an entrance fee. So come on out and join us. Express yourself! Be free! For free!
Just like on the playa, and as in the story Stone Soup, WE get to add all the rest. Here's what we have so far. The soup is gaining some excellent flavor...
Breaking News!
"Help Me" BSDM Camp will be doing late evening demonstrations.
Camp Playa Magic will be part of Stone Soup this year! Direct from Harrah's Lake Tahoe and the Carson Valley Inn, the renown, "Thomas", will be performing his close up magic show at Center Camp Saturday evening after the pot-luck - now we're GUARANTEED to have a magical weekend. Camp Play Magic is also organizing a sunset drum circle. Bring your bongo!
Camp Lazy Fucks - Returning from last year, Blue and Brother as Camp Lazy Fucks will host the greeter camp at the very west end of the valley. I've heard Kathy is also returning to help them out this year. Welcome to the greeters!
Club Verboten Comes to PermaBurn!
Yep. The very same tent you saw at the 4:30 plaza last year; the club known for stopping traffic and plugging up the streets of Black Rock City will be erected in the center camp area at PermaBurn Friday afternoon, June 5th.
Omar and Action Jack
Tim Hunter himself (aka Omar Suarez) will be spinning the music as well as providing a venue for other DJs. So far we have offers from DJ Reality of Camp Ellipsis, BabebyBay(Betsy) from the bay area and D6 from Reno. You guys need to check in with Tim (thunter885@aol.com) unless you plan to set up your own venues. Whatever your taste, we'll have some excellent music coming out of this volcano, and at least one fully enclosed club in which to enjoy it.
From Omar...
Friday 1966-1984........ Garage/Psych to UK glam to Disco to CBGBS
Saturday-1984- 2009.......
Center Camp - If you've been to local Reno events, you know you've found the party once you spot Rick Brown's Greyhound conversion bus on the property. Yep. He's determine to arrive with the biggest piece of equipment ever driven to PermaBurn and then turn it into part of Center Camp.
We plan to arrange Rick's Greyhound conversion, along with Cutter's school bus and my motor-home into a "C" shaped wind break and then cover it with one of my large shade structures. Rose Palace Paula and Dave will be adding some Astro-truf for ground cover. There will also be tables and chairs for Saturday's Lick-your-plate pot-luck.
Stone Soup Saloon - Along side will be the new Stone Soup Saloon and Chill Dome, hosted by Marj and Mark. In some bars you get what you order. Here they'll serve up whatever shows up. It's the place to mix your left-over playa drinks with everyone else's left-over playa drinks to see what happens. Bring it on!
Beaverton Queer Ladies - Kinnari Kreme from Nevada City will be hosting a camp to represent Beaverton Queer Ladies at our event. Email her at kinnarikreme@gmail.com if you'd like to join, or just compare plans.
Randy's Ribs - Want ribs with that soup? Some of you may remember Randy Miller (Sprocket) from last year. He was camped by the big swing and his boys were riding their ATVs. After last year's camp-out he joined PermaBurn permanently and this year wants to welcome us back with BBQed ribs. So follow your nose to his PermaCamp.
Reno Poly Camp - Actually, it's the Northern Nevada Polyamory Support group, and they will hold their June meeting at Stone Soup's Center Camp as well as hosting a Saturday evening pack-it-in, pack-it-out, lick-your-plate pot-luck at 6:00 PM. This will be preceded by, "An Introduction to Polyamory", at 4:00 PM. They will also lead discussions on alternate lifestyles during the weekend. Contact Teresa Werner with any question or contribution at... terwer42@yahoo.com
Kid's Camp - Marie Gilbert will host a place for, "interactive family fun... kite's, kid's with hammers, rock stacking etc." Contact her at... amariegilbert@gmail.com if you wish to join the other three families also hosting this camp.
Fire Camp - Mac (Debbie McMullin and husband Dave) from Controlled Burn has volunteered to coordinate the fire arts in an attempt to cut down on duplication of safety equipment, supplies etc. Let her know about your fire spinning plans and how you can help at... ruby_holly@yahoo.com
Timeless Sculptures - Matt Welter of Timeless Sculptures will try to bring one of his pieces out as well as have information on the Tea Party. Check out his site if you're interested in Libertarian politics...
http://www.timelesssculptures.com/cover/cover.htm
Stone Soup Prep Meeting - We've had requests for an actual prep meeting before the event, so now that is in the plans as well. We'll do it at my place in south Reno on May 27th at 7:00 PM. This meeting is not a requirement for the camp-out. If you just plan to attend Soup Soup and participate in you own way, this meeting is not critical. But if you can help with any of the other projects or you need some face time on any of the other organizers, please join us...
Link back here for on-going updates as the details come in. More importantly, email me with YOUR plans so I can help you hook up with others and coordinate similar activities. Let me know if I can post your name, email and or phone number here along with your camp plans. Plus I'll need a head count for the potties, so...
RSVP plans and head count to...
sudden.net@gmail.com
If you're not familiar with PermaBurn, here is a link to last year's camp-out posts...
First Ashes at PermaBurn 2008
Thanks to CyberBiker for providing this Google Map link..
Stone Soup 2009 - PermaBurn Location on Google Map
If you haven't been out, there is 5 miles of gravel road, some of it has dips that would challenge anything with a flat exit angle, such as a long over-hang RV. Last year there were trailers as long as 24 feet and one fully loaded Geo Metro, so any normal car will make it if you dodge a few rocks. High clearance or trucks, no problem at all. (05-1-20-09 much of the road has been graded since last year and virtually ANY vehicle can make it out by dodging a few rocks.
(click to expand)
How to get to PermaBurn...
Take 395 60 miles north of Susanville to Madeline, California
(the 395 junction is just east of Susanville).
Go 6 miles north of Madeline on 395 to the 134.92 mile marker at 41 7'43" 120 30'0".
Watch for the orange tape from this point on. If you go to Google map you won't find any names on any of these roads, but the mile marker is past Sage Hen and before South Fork Mountain Road. On the ground, the key is the mile marker and orange tape at each junction.
You have five miles to go.
Take a left onto the shortcut to a gravel road.
Take another left to go south on this gravel road.
Go 0.1 miles till you reach the green gate. Open the gate if you have to and go through. Please remember to close it back.
Go 0.4 miles until you see a second green Gate on the right with orange tape.
Open the green gate and take a right. AND close it back.
Cross the yellow cattle guard about 30 feet beyond the gate.
Go 2.4 miles. (05-20-09 this section has been graded since last year).
You will see another yellow cattle guard and orange tape.
To the right, will be a sign for the reservoir.
You are at 41 6'45" 120 32' 6".
Go just BEYOND the cattle guard, and then take an immediate LEFT turn on the dirt road on the other side of the fence. Turn left just AFTER the cattle guard, not before!
Go 2.2 miles south on the dirt road.
At some points the road tilts pretty bad, and there are a few rocks protruding but a normal car can make it with care.
You will reach a small hill and then come down into the PermaBurn site. The last hundred yards which was so bad last year has been newly worked and is in much better condition.
The best camping is in this first valley.
Welcome to Permaburn!
Welcome to Stone Soup!
Where to Camp
There are two ponds on the hill with some trees around them. Unfortunately, this is also where some free range cattle come to drink and find shade, AND leave their droppings. There were only a few mosquitoes last year - not really a problem. But to minimize all of these factors, we will be setting up Center Camp along main street a quarter mile back in the lower valley. You can of course camp where ever you choose but we'd like the significant performance camps along main street if possible.
That's all I can think of right now. Email me your questions, camp, art plans and head count to...
sudden.net@gmail.com
Or just click on "Comments" below. Either will work. I will post the updates here from time to time.
What : Stone Soup 2009 Camp-out at PermaBurn
When : June 5th, 6th & 7th (early and late camping is fine)
Where : Madeline, California - 60 miles north of Susanville
Entrance Fee : 0.00, nada, FREE!
See ya at Stone Soup 2009.
See ya at PermaBurn!
Friday, April 17, 2009
Obama's Hypocrisy on School Vouchers
Many of you have heard me rant about public education and how vouchers are the solution. Until now I have not posted on the topic. Nor will I start.
It's only a narrow example, but Shikha Dalmia has done a far better job than I ever could. This is an impressive piece and worth a read even if you don't have kids in school. Here are a couple of excerpts...
"First: This administration has proudly boasted that it would make a decisive break with its predecessor's habit of ignoring science when it clashed with policy objectives. And concerning the D.C. program in particular, President Obama had assured that he would let evidence settle its fate. "Let's see if it [the voucher program] works," he said during the campaign. "And if it does, whatever my preconceptions, you do what's best for the kids." Yet far from being led by the scientific evidence, he concealed it."
"In fact, the program, with per-pupil costs that are a third of what D.C. public schools spend, is producing solid gains for the 1,700 predominantly poor and minority children it serves. Indeed, the first batch of children who received vouchers from the program for private schools is now 19 months ahead of its public school peers in reading--which is why there are four applicants for every available slot."
Here's the whole story...
Obama's Hypocrisy
This is "CHANGE"? This is "HOPE"?
Education's too important to be left to the government. Empower the parents.
Burning Man 2008 Photo-map
Some of you have seen my signed poster photo-map of Burning Man 2008 on my desk at home. Here is the GigaPan version you can zoom and pan any time you like - fun stuff.
Burning Man 2008 From the Air
Sunday, March 29, 2009
"The Medium is the Message"
This new art form certainly drives home Marshall McLuhan's message about the medium being the message... ah... being the medium.
Nice work, iri5.
For more...
Amazing cassette tape art
Thursday, March 26, 2009
"Simplify and Add Lightness"
I've written here before how lowering weight is the single greatest factor to improve acceleration, braking, handling, price and economy of operation in an automobile.
Here is a great example of what can be done if you follow Colin Chapman's advice and, "Simplify and add lightness". This British movie and review is impressive. Check it out.
Tata Nano Review Film
There is hope for rational design.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Where do you eat?
This is some of the best dieting advice I've seen in a long time.
The point is, eat on purpose at a normal place. That way you have a chance to quantify HOW MUCH you eat. If you graze all day everywhere you go, there's no way of knowing how much.
This appears to be a valid reason for the increase in obesity.
Check it out...
Where do you eat?
Monday, February 16, 2009
Defend Phelps - Zen Boycott Kellogg's
This Phelps / Kellogg's affair is a bit bizarre. Here we have who is arguably the greatest Olympic athlete of all time being marginalized for imbibing a product which obviously does him little or no harm. EXCEPT for Kellogg's dumping his contract.
The only way this absurdity make any sense at all, is when you realize marijuana is a bit like masturbation - lots of people do it, few stand up in public to defend it. And I won't either. I'm only an observer.
It's the same reason NORML has had such a PR problem since it's inception. Only those with true conviction and courage will come out in favor of marijuana. Let me make it clear, I'm not one of them. In the mean time, the vast majority who DO approve, do so silently.
...
But I have a suggestion.
Yep.
Boycott Kellogg's cereal.
But not the usual boycott.
Only a Zen boycott will have the desired effect.
It's well known, conventional boycott's rarely work. For the few who actually stop using products, others will buy their share just to vote the other side. The awareness dies off equally on both sides over time. The trick is to avoid the press and campaigns and make this long term and about more than just Kellogg's.
That's what would make a Zen Boycott different - there should be no PR at all. In other words, no major press stories. No campaigns. Don't even let the opposition know what's happening. Only the product managers at Kellogg's will discover the truth - and wonder why.
Think about it. If only a small fraction of those who smoke marijuana actually stopped eating Kellogg's cereal, it will have a significant impact. Even a few points of market share will make a BIG difference to the cereal companies.
And if the tokers out there see Kellogg's at a friend's house and refuse to eat it, word will spread. Over time it could even take the form of an inside joke like 4:20, where only the few insiders would "get it".
Yes. It will take a while for word to get around. But it would be a campaign that would NEVER be reversed. Kellogg's in time would have to change their name and hide their brand - or lose their lead in the market.
In this subtle way, those who smoke won't HAVE to stand up and be counted. They just need to find something ELSE to eat for breakfast. And there are plenty of other brands.
This doesn't even need to be about Kellogg's per se. Over time this little incident may be forgotten, but the boycott wouldn't. Kellogg's could be just a handy medium for those who wish to express themselves about the upside-down world of alcohol / marijuana law enforcement and the politics of our times.
So if you think our laws are wrong, and that politically correct - isn't correct...
Next time you see a box of Kellogg's...
Quietly reach for another brand...
Let the Wheaties rot on the shelf.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Siftables from the Media Lab
I think this is the second post I've done on a TED presentation. This one is an impressive new form machine / human interaction. If you do ANYthing with UI, you need to watch this...
Siftables Video
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Climate Change Recalculated
This was an email to me of Stewart Brand's notes from Saul Griffith's Long Now presentation - on, "Climate Change Recalculated".
Man-made global warming or not, the numbers are amazing. Will we find the conviction to change before we are forced? Or not? And what happens when we discover it was wasted effort as nature self-corrects?
I'm not yet convinced about man-made global warming, but I AM very much in favor of using less energy as well as finding effective alternatives. If we don't start now, cost will force us to in the near future in any case. I have doubts about accomplishing what he projects and suspect reality will be some kind of moving mix of new energy sources, yet short of this goal over the next 25 years.
In any case, this is an interesting read...
Engineer Griffith said he was going to make the connection between personal actions and global climate change. To do that he's been analyzing his own life in extreme detail to figure out exactly how much energy he uses and what changes might reduce the load. In 2007, when he started, he was consuming about 18,000 watts, like most Americans.
The energy budget of the average person in the world is about 2,200 watts. Some 90 percent of the carbon dioxide overload in the atmosphere was put there by the US, USSR (of old), China, Germany, Japan, and Britain. The rich countries have the most work to do.
What would it take to level off the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at 450 parts per million (ppm)? That level supposedly would keep global warming just barely manageable at an increase of 2 degrees Celsius. There still would be massive loss of species, 100 million climate refugees, and other major stresses. The carbon dioxide level right now is 385 ppm, rising fast. Before industrialization it was 296 ppm. America's leading climatologist, James Hanson, says we must lower the carbon dioxide level to 350 ppm if we want to keep the world we evolved in.
The world currently runs on about 16 terawatts (trillion watts) of energy, most of it burning fossil fuels. To level off at 450 ppm of carbon dioxide, we will have to reduce the fossil fuel burning to 3 terawatts and produce all the rest with renewable energy, and we have to do it in 25 years or it's too late. Currently about half a terrawatt comes from clean hydropower and one terrawatt from clean nuclear. That leaves 11.5 terawatts to generate from new clean sources.
That would mean the following. (Here I'm drawing on notes and extrapolations I've written up previously from discussion with Griffith):
"Two terawatts of photovoltaic would require installing 100 square meters of 15-percent-efficient solar cells every second, second after second, for the next 25 years. (That's about 1,200 square miles of solar cells a year, times 25 equals 30,000 square miles of photovoltaic cells.) Two terawatts of solar thermal? If it's 30 percent efficient all told, we'll need 50 square meters of highly reflective mirrors every second. (Some 600 square miles a year, times 25.) Half a terawatt of biofuels? Something like one Olympic swimming pools of genetically engineered algae, installed every second. (About 15,250 square miles a year, times 25.) Two terawatts of wind? That's a 300-foot-diameter wind turbine every 5 minutes. (Install 105,000 turbines a year in good wind locations, times 25.) Two terawatts of geothermal? Build 3 100-megawatt steam turbines every day-1,095 a year, times 25. Three terawatts of new nuclear? That's a 3-reactor, 3-gigawatt plant every week-52 a year, times 25."
In other words, the land area dedicated to renewable energy ("Renewistan") would occupy a space about the size of Australia to keep the carbon dioxide level at 450 ppm. To get to Hanson's goal of 350 ppm of carbon dioxide, fossil fuel burning would have to be cut to ZERO, which means another 3 terawatts would have to come from renewables, expanding the size of Renewistan further by 26 percent.
Meanwhile for individuals, to stay at the world's energy budget at 16 terawatts, while many of the poorest in the world might raise their standard of living to 2,200 watts, everyone now above that level would have to drop down to it. Griffith determined that most of his energy use was coming from air travel, car travel, and the embodied energy of his stuff, along with his diet. Now he drives the speed limit (no one has passed him in six months), seldom flies, eats meat only once a week, bikes a lot, and buys almost nothing. He's healthier, eats better, has more time with his family, and the stuff he has he cherishes.
Can the world actually build Renewistan? Griffeth said it's not like the Manhattan Project, it's like the whole of World War II, only with all the antagonists on the same side this time. It's damn near impossible, but it is necessary. And the world has to decide to do it.
Griffith's audience was strangely exhilerated by the prospect.
--Stewart Brand
04-25-12 'Gaia' scientist James Lovelock: I was 'alarmist' about climate change
Friday, December 26, 2008
Rich Man's Recession
Christmas is done. The party is over. The numbers are in. The recession is "official", though I still don't understand how they declared it retroactive by one year. Were they asleep at the switch or just like to revise history?
In any case, Americans bought 5% less this Christmas than we did last year. That certainly qualifies as a down-turn, but what's even MORE interesting is that luxury goods were down 37%! That indicates that at least initially, this recession is highly disproportionate as to who will take the greatest hit. It's a rich man's recession.
This selective slam makes sense, considering the majority of bad paper on Wall street was in the form of credit default swaps or other bundled debt managed by so-call "hedge funds". These hedge funds seem to have accomplished just the opposite of a "hedge" in their trading of this bubble paper.
The point is, this bubble was more of a credit bubble. The houses were the rationalization. They were just the part we could see and touch. Why else would Ohio lead the nation in forclosures when their house prices hardly rose at all? It was about more borrowing even if the house DIDN'T increase in value. And all this bad credit ended up, not only at local banks, but on Wall street in hedge funds. So first impact will be felt by those who used hedge funds, directly or indirectly. And this tends to be the wealthy in this country.
What does it mean for MAIN street? It's true, over-leveraged first-time home buyers and junior speculators who bought too many houses will obviously be hit, but most of the rest of the damage will be limited to trickle-down and side effect from Wall street to main street. That doesn't mean it will be pain-free for most, but it will certainly be far worse for the super-wealthy.
And like the internet bubble, much of this bubble's loss will be from bubble gain. And much of what's missing when all those CDSs are sorted out will be assets which were largely illusion to begin with.
It's like that gain you thought you'd made on that house you never sold - it came out of nowhere in only a few years, and now has even more quickly disappeared into the same place - nowhere. For the internet bubble, this loss was about $4 trillion. This time it will be about $10 trillion in contracted value, most of which didn't exist five years ago. And that's the point. These ARE real dollars, but they mostly exist on the balance sheets of large Wall street firms, not in printed form.
No one can predict the future, and this down-turn will certainly not be like ones we've seen in the past, but it will probably affect Wall street far more dramatically than it will Main street.
Time will tell.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Hitler and the Real Estate Downfall
I can't help it. I HAVE to post this link!
For those of you who got tired of my railing about the housing bubble, here's a nice summary...
Hitler and the Real Estate Downfall
This spoof is worth a watch.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Time for Gold?
A friend asked this morning if gold wasn't a good place to be for the next few weeks. Since my response is a conversation I've had a lot lately, it might be of general interest...
Zoe,
You didn't know me then, but I talked the housing bubble to death from 2003 to 2006. I tried to get at least seven different friends to sell their houses and rent - without success. THEY know who I'm talking about.
So you don't think I'm rewriting history, here are the blog posts...
http://suddendisruption.blogspot.com/search/label/Housing%20Bubble
I even went to cash with my IRA just before the 2005 Burn so I wouldn't get caught in the market while out on the playa. But I called it too early. Market timing is not easy.
While I foresaw the housing bubble, I didn't foresee the credit bubble (over-spending), nor the other Wall street hedges used to hid the sin, nor the world-wide scale of the problem.
Plus I obviously missed the timing of the housing market's turn, even though I KNEW it HAD to turn. It got FAR worse for FAR longer before it turned than I ever suspected it would. I underestimated the stupidity of the American public. Didn't someone warn about that? Barnum?
And a few weeks ago, things looked so ugly, I totally went to cash in my IRA again and missed virtually all of the Wall street crash. But then I popped back into the market last week. Is the bear at the bottom yet? Who knows?
My point is, have a care when you try to predict ANY market movement. If there's ANYthing I have confidence in at this point, it's the short term UNpredictability of any of the markets. VOLATILITY is the current state of affairs.
Yes. There are certainly bargains out there in everything from autos to toothpaste - but gold?
Gold is simply the hedge of the dollar's movements. Three hundred years ago an ounce of gold would buy you a good suit. Today it still will. (I think).
This means gold is a good place to be if you think the dollar will lose all it's value - inflation. It WAS a great place to be BEFORE it dropped against all the other currencies over the last few months. But some now think DEflation is now more likely. Or will it be just more volatility?
But INflation? Only if you are VERY pessimistic. When the US gets a cough, the rest of the world catches pneumonia as you can see by looking at all the other exchanges. So if the dollar heads south NOW, you'd better invest in another metal - one that strong enough to hold some riffling.
JMHO.
Rod
--
aka Yum!
aka Bonobo
aka Zen Heretic
aka Sudden Disruption and Burning
Man Regional Contact Explore the Sudden-Centric Cyberverse...
http://www.sudden.net
"Art is that which everything else isn't" - Theodore Roethke
