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Tuesday, May 05, 2020

April Fools!

April Fools on April 20th? OK, I'm a bit late but it's no less valid. To be honest I wanted to publish this on April 1st but I didn't have any indication of the required data at the time. And to be honest, the joke would not have been well taken at the time. Now it might. Now I do:

A New Statistic Reveals Why America’s COVID-19 Numbers Are Flat

You don't need to read the whole article as it's mostly post rationalization. I'll post the critical paragraph:

"According to the Tracking Project’s figures, nearly one in five people who get tested for the coronavirus in the United States is found to have it. In other words, the country has what is called a “test-positivity rate” of nearly 20 percent."

If that 20 percent estimate ultimately turns out to be accurate, most of America (and much of the world) are April Fools. The reason is what I called the "denominator problem" in my first post on this topic.

Here's why in simple math. As of this morning according to WorldOMeter, 39,015 people in the United States have died due to Corona (I will no longer bother to dignify the bug with its proper name, as the name of a beer is more appropriate). This means that the actual death rate of those who contract the disease is 39,015 / 328,200,000 / 5 = 0.06 percent rounded UP. Please note, that is NOT six percent. The likely death rate of Corona is only six hundreds of ONE percent, or about twice as bad as the Swine Flu Epidemic of 2009. 

"an overwhelming body of evidence shows that this is an undercount."

And THAT is an understatement.


Here's a very quick recap. Corona is both a deadly disease and a common cold, each by degrees, and dependent upon conditions once two issues are defined - the denominator problem and misattritubtion of the causes of death, both over and under stated for various reasons.

So far it appears that somewhere between two and twenty percent of America has antibodies for this disease. A good guess might be about 30 million Americans have already has this disease. And that's its most important metric. It means this disease is not very deadly, perhaps not much worse than a bad case of the flu. Characterizing it's mild cases should be relatively easy. Understanding how it kills could be much more difficult as most of those deaths are mired in comorbities and teasing apart cause from correlation will be difficult. With 30% of the deaths occurring in rest homes, Corona will soon be largely managed as another disease of the elderly, while most of the world gets back to work.

02-03-23 I was obviously wrong about getting back to work. Here is the reason:

'Knew Covid had been engineered to make it infectious to humans but were told to shut-up'